A Few Thoughts about the Latest Polls

Bloomberg has a new national poll and Fox has a poll in New Hampshire. A few observations: 

Trump hasn’t collapsed after Paris, and why would he? He’s a fierce nationalist who is a hardliner on immigration — this moment, in a lot of ways, actually suits him just fine.

At least in New Hampshire, Cruz does not inherit Trump’s support. The Fox Poll shows Trump’s support spreading all over the field rather than going overwhelmingly to Cruz.

Bush appears to have a Christie and Kasich problem in New Hampshire. This is overly simplistic, but if you put together their support, you get 22 percent. Bush needs Kasich to go away and for Christie’s nascent momentum to sputter out and reverse.

In the Bloomberg poll, Rubio’s favorable-unfavorable is the best in the field, 67-17, if basically on par with Ben Carson’s (the good doctor is at 67-21). 

Bloomberg asks some interesting questions asking about Cruz and Rubio on various qualities. They are tied or Rubio leads on most of them — he’s notably ahead on better temperament to be president and would work effectively with Congress (if anyone cares about that!) — but Cruz leads on who would do more to solve the illegal immigration problem. On that question, it’s 44-35 Cruz, and it’s an advantage the Texan surely believes he can build on.