Needless to say, I couldn’t be any more delighted with the results. Congrats to Ted Cruz on his awesome victory (and to Marco Rubio on a great night–another day and he probably would have over-taken Trump).
Some observations from the entrance polls I’m looking at, which speak to three candidates carving out three different niches in the party. Cruz’s base is religious conservatives and voters looking for change; Trump’s is less-educated voters who desperately want an outsider to shake things up; Rubio’s is better-educated voters and those especially eager to win in the general.
Rubio won 44 percent among those who cared about winning in November (21 percent of voters). Trump crushed among voters who want someone who tells it like it is (14 percent of voters). Meanwhile, Cruz dominated among voters who want someone who shares their values (42 percent), and held his own, losing narrowly to Trump, among those who want a candidate who can bring needed change (21).
On issues, Trump got a whopping 44 percent on those who care most about immigration, but that was only 13 percent of voters, while Rubio won 30 percent among the 27 percent of voters who care about the economy most (not sure why Rubio would win this category, but there it is).
Trump dominated with the half of the electorate that wants an outsider, but bombed with the half of voters who want experience (Cruz managed to do pretty well with both groups).
Trump’s support notably skewed toward those without a college degree, while Rubio’s support skewed toward those with a college degree or more.
Cruz won prior caucus-goers handily and Trump first-timers, while Rubio’s support was even among both (he also got basically equal percentages of Republicans and independents).
Cruz won 34 percent of evangelicals (who were an astonishing 64 percent of the electorate), but experienced a big drop-off among non-evangelicals. Trump and Cruz both ran better among non-evangelicals, but got notable evangelical support as well.
On to New Hampshire, where Trump is now looking, not to go 2-2 as so many had hoped and feared, but to re-gain momentum checked tonight by Ted Cruz’s much (and justifiably) vaunted ground game.
Ted Cruz--Breaking Down His Iowa Win