How the Terrain Shifts in New Hampshire

New Hampshire doesn’t usually reward winners of Iowa, and if you look at the terrain there you can see why (I went over this with the invaluable Henry Olsen the other day, so I am in his debt, but all mistakes are mine). 

In Iowa, Cruz won handily among evangelicals 33 to 21 for Trump and 21 for Rubio in Iowa. Evangelicals were 62 percent of the electorate. In New Hampshire in 2012, they were 22 percent of the electorate.

Cuz crushed among very conservative voters in Iowa, winning 44 percent of them. They were 40 percent of the electorate. In New Hampshire in 2012, very conservatives were 21 percent of the electorate.

Cruz did better among Republicans than independents in Iowa, winning 30 percent of the former and 19 percent of the latter. Republicans were 79 percent of the electorate and independents were 20 percent. In New Hampshire in 2012, Republicans were 49 percent of the electorate and independents 47 percent.

As for Trump, New Hampshire is obviously more favorable to him. He did a little better than Cruz among independents in Iowa (although he tied with Rubio), and won outright among non-evangelicals, so he will benefit from a less Republican and less religious electorate. 

Trump also stands to gain from the fact that New Hampshire has fewer very conservative voters. He beat Cruz among somewhat-conservatives in Iowa (although he lost to Rubio) and won outright among moderates. An astonishing 47 percent of the New Hampshire electorate was moderate or liberal in 2012, whereas only 15 percent of Iowa caucus-goers were moderate or liberal. 

Rubio won outright among somewhat-conservatives in Iowa. They were 45 percent of the electorate in Iowa, and were a little less in New Hampshire in 2012, 32 percent. Rubio was competitive with moderates with Trump in Iowa, losing to Trump 34-28. This gets to how, just in terms of the ideological breakdown in the Iowa entrance polls, Trump and Rubio are competing for the same types of voters more than you would expect (although there are other major divergences — Trump voters are less educated, want someone without political experience, etc.).

If you look ahead to South Carolina, you see an electorate that is much more balanced ideologically than Iowa or New Hampshire. It is roughly divided in thirds between very conservatives, somewhat-conservatives, and moderates, which is part of what has made it such an important early contest in GOP primary battles.