Indiana — the Primary that Changed Everything

For this phase of the campaign, Indiana was a key pivot point. Trump put away his competitors and could concentrate on trying (more or less) to unify his party, while Bernie demonstrated his staying power, meaning that Hillary would have to grapple with him at least into June. This dynamic, with Trump consolidating the GOP and Hillary still in an intra-party battle, has meant that Trump has pulled into a tie with Hillary in the national polls, further breaking down resistance to Trump in the party. Now, we’re about to learn in California next week if this dynamic is going to endure at least until late July. If Bernie upsets Hillary in California, there is little incentive for him to go away before the Democratic convention and the split in the party may deepen and materially affect Hillary’s chances in the fall.