Making Donald Trump’s bad week — actually, his bad month — worse, a new poll from Arizona shows him behind Hillary Clinton by over four points: He commands only 42.2 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 46.5.
We’re still far off from the general election, and a lot can change between June and November, but this isn’t a good sign for Trump and his campaign. Arizona, typically a safe state for Republicans, may well fall into the Democratic camp: Worryingly, political-science professor Larry Sabato lists Arizona as only a “leans” Republican state, not even a “likely” one, in his Electoral College predictions map.
Arizona isn’t the only traditionally Republican state where Trump has shown weakness. In Utah, some polls have found him tied with Clinton, and Sabato now lists the state as “likely” Republican; Trump has said he’ll campaign there, but it’s unclear whether that’s related to his meager poll numbers. In Kansas, one poll found him trailing Clinton by seven points. Georgia is also now, in Sabato’s reckoning, “leaning” Republican.
None of this looks particularly good for Trump, as the convention in Cleveland approaches. If Trump loses Arizona, the Electoral College math — already advantageous to the Democrats — becomes a very narrow path to tread.
Donald Trump: Arizona Polls Look Worrying