Over the weekend, lots of folks declared that Tim Kaine was a “safe” pick for vice president. He’s conventional, he’s comfortable, and despite his progressive voting record, he’s got a reputation as a bit of a centrist. Here we have all the elements of the completely conventional strategy of tacking left in the primary then moving right in the general election. Boring, right?
Not in 2016. With the progressive base as restive and angry as it is, I’d argue that the safer play would have been Elizabeth Warren or Tom Perez — someone who would help her lock down the Left and allow her to essentially defend Obama’s 2012 turf. After all, she’s starting with a considerable geographic and demographic advantage, why risk the support of the Left’s most engaged activists? If Elizabeth Warren or Tom Perez were on the ticket, she’d be better able to weather, for example, a Wikileaks storm that reinforces every Bernie supporter’s suspicion that the system was rigged — and Hillary helped rig it.
Instead of playing for a repeat of Obama’s 2012 win, Hillary’s going for Obama 2008 — casting herself as the adult in the race, secure and steady compared to Trump. But in 2008, even despite the bitter primary againt Hillary, Obama didn’t face the kind of progressive rebellion Hillary faces. It’s clear now that she’s tacking to the middle before she’s secured the Left, apparently confident that the specter of Donald Trump will be enough to motivate millions of progressives to pull the lever for a ticket that they may of them feel doesn’t contain a single true believer. Kaine’s not the guy who’s going to inspire Bernie voters – especially in a year where the Republican nominee is openly courting progressive support and interest in third-party candidates like Gary Johnson or Jill Stein is unusually high.
It’s still likely that progressives will rally behind Hillary. It’s not yet certain, however, and if they don’t, then the Kaine pick will demonstrate once again that 2016 was the year when conventional thinking proved to be unacceptably risky.
The Tim Kaine Pick Was Conventional, but in 2016 Conventional Isn't Safe