Eliana had a piece yesterday on the establishment beginning to think that Trump could win the nomination, and now there are a bunch of new national polls confirming Trump’s status as something entirely new in GOP presidential politics, the anti-establishment frontrunner. Some thoughts:
–Media attention has proved priceless in this crowded race, but especially negative media attention of a certain type. Surely it is no coincidence that the two top candidates, Trump and Carson, have repeatedly outraged the media. (Fiorina had one of these moments with the post-debate Planned Parenthood flap, but has faded from view since then.)
–Jeb is not only not turning the corner, the corner doesn’t seem in sight. Monmouth notes that he’s been losing ground in every one of its polls since the summer and his favorable/unfavorable rating is headed in the wrong direction–he’s at 37-44 now, when he was 52-30 in August.
–Maybe this year will be different, but there have traditionally been three tickets out of Iowa. It’s entirely possible that the top finishers there will be, not necessarily in this order, Trump, Carson, and Cruz.
–I continue to believe that Iowa is a significant obstacle for Trump. To put it mildly, he doesn’t have the traditional characteristics of someone who wins the caucuses, and a loss out of the gate would be tough for him after leading for so long everywhere. But if does win there, and especially if he gets into the South with some momentum, watch out.